Image courtesy of Global News
Well, well, well, the rather "interesting" world we live just got one helluva lot more interesting after the Presidential election we all witnessed (into the wee small hours) last Tuesday night! To say that the Trumpster shook the world would not be overstatement; in fact he maybe even caused the entire planet to spin a little faster, or shifted the Earth off it's usual 23 degree axis by a few degrees! He's most definitely not standing behind her today, and some actually believe that SNL helped him get there - the exact opposite of their apparent intent!
Irrespective of which candidate one preferred, democracy had its day, and this was no George Bush-Al Gore repeat, chads and all. That 2000 election came down to the voters of Florida, with barely hundreds separating the candidates out of almost 6 million votes cast. This time it became clear that Florida was falling quite early on, and fall it did before Tuesday even became Wednesday. That was an essential state for each to win, and its falling caused aftershocks that reached high into both Trump Tower and the Peninsula Hotel in downtown Manhattan.
The dominoes of key states such as Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania then all fell into each other and firmly into place for Trump, and the reality began to kick in for one and all - not least Donald Trump himself - who seemed somewhat bemused or even tranquilised by (the gravity of) what he had just achieved. It was an astounding, unpredicted victory but one which was met with rather subdued celebrations by the victor, unlike (ironically) what would have transpired had it been Clinton.
There are a few key points that are at the root of all of this and one was most definitely the media who misguided America (the world?!) into a false sense of security that all was right with the world, and Clinton was a sure-fire winner. Maybe that was true in the cityscape towers and territory that the media inhabit, but it was far from reality in the inner cities and suburbs where raging discontent was festering. Ultimately the nation played their Trump card, beautifully, regardless of the candidate's actual merits.
The meddling of FBI director James Comey during the last days of the campaign simply raised further (excuses for) distrust of Clinton, and some pundits claim he cost her the election. Whether he also sensed a Trump victory and wanted to assure his job is unclear, but for sure he's probably safer under Trump. Clinton would likely have savaged him had she won, and I think his departure would have been inevitable.
The overarching (perceived) arrogance of Clinton was a huge turn-off to the American electorate, and even early polling had shown that, but she appeared sure she still had it in the bag, maybe until a day or two prior to the election itself. Sadly for her - as a career politician who has a family legacy of White House and senior political office experience - if she couldn't beat the likes of Donald Trump to the highest elected office in the land, then that career is now over. Her defeat by Trump makes even her 2008 primary loss to Obama look more significant than it appeared at the time, i.e. she would have lost to almost anyone.
As much as the sycophantic media and Clinton's fawning entourage claimed they had victory in their grasp, it was Trump's thermometers that were spot on in terms of their guaging it as way too close to call in key battleground states, and the needle firmly in the red in many others. While all around her shuffled nervously and avoided questions, early in the evening Kellyanne Conway (Trump's campaign manager) calmly predicted Florida would fall, as would Michigan and Pennsylvania, and she was clearly confident that the Republicans would win - and she was right. However, what's not so clear is whether the Donald was so sure he would win, or whether he even truly wanted that job at the end of the day. And a very long day it was.
The meddling of FBI director James Comey during the last days of the campaign simply raised further (excuses for) distrust of Clinton, and some pundits claim he cost her the election. Whether he also sensed a Trump victory and wanted to assure his job is unclear, but for sure he's probably safer under Trump. Clinton would likely have savaged him had she won, and I think his departure would have been inevitable.
The overarching (perceived) arrogance of Clinton was a huge turn-off to the American electorate, and even early polling had shown that, but she appeared sure she still had it in the bag, maybe until a day or two prior to the election itself. Sadly for her - as a career politician who has a family legacy of White House and senior political office experience - if she couldn't beat the likes of Donald Trump to the highest elected office in the land, then that career is now over. Her defeat by Trump makes even her 2008 primary loss to Obama look more significant than it appeared at the time, i.e. she would have lost to almost anyone.
As much as the sycophantic media and Clinton's fawning entourage claimed they had victory in their grasp, it was Trump's thermometers that were spot on in terms of their guaging it as way too close to call in key battleground states, and the needle firmly in the red in many others. While all around her shuffled nervously and avoided questions, early in the evening Kellyanne Conway (Trump's campaign manager) calmly predicted Florida would fall, as would Michigan and Pennsylvania, and she was clearly confident that the Republicans would win - and she was right. However, what's not so clear is whether the Donald was so sure he would win, or whether he even truly wanted that job at the end of the day. And a very long day it was.
The big question is of course what happens next?! In my opinion, Trump is gonna learn exactly what it means to make a bunch of promises, outrageous promises in his case, as a means-to-an-end to get elected POTUS, and then actually win. It's quite trivial to say one will do this and one will change that, when one barely believes it's ever going to matter. Suddenly thrust into power, and into the hotseat, is quite another thing entirely, and that famous hair is likely to get singed by the burning spotlight that will now be focused on it, 24/7.
He's now between a rock and a hard place. He spoke out for the working man and the disenfranchised and the crumbling inner cities, promising to build walls, expel illegals and repeal Obamacare, and on and on and on. If he chooses to become all soft spoken and presidential now, because he shockingly won, there will be a rebellion amongst the electorate who put him there and just like Obama, he will become a lame duck by mid-terms, in 2018.
On the other hand, if he maintains his hard line and goes (further) rogue, he will keep the support of the electorate but will put America into very dangerous territory and lose America further support globally. If there's a fine line to tread between his extremes and the reality of governing a land as massive (in more ways than size) as the USA, I am not sure he knows how to either find or tread that fine line. Only time will tell, and it's an experiment that could go either way, including horrifically wrong.
His first post-election interview on "60 Minutes" with Lesley Stahl was more the former, with him all soft focus lens/soft spoken, and already backtracking on some major promises made in the run-in - remind you of anyone? I think he's gonna understand Barack Obama a whole lot better, in a very short time! But if he starts to sound and act like him? Good luck beyond 2018.
His first post-election interview on "60 Minutes" with Lesley Stahl was more the former, with him all soft focus lens/soft spoken, and already backtracking on some major promises made in the run-in - remind you of anyone? I think he's gonna understand Barack Obama a whole lot better, in a very short time! But if he starts to sound and act like him? Good luck beyond 2018.
As much as disruption and innovation are buzz words adored (and perhaps overused) in our life science ecosystem (or the economy in general), we don't seem so fond of it when it comes to the election process! There is no doubt that Donald Trump is a disruptor, and in fact he disrupted the entire election process by fighting his way through not only the lengthy Republican primaries but also a general election against a darling of Wall Street. He didn't do it by taking money from special interests or lobbyists or big banks or Wall Street, because he didn't have to - he had the money - which is a truly unique and innovative way to become POTUS!
It's stretching the point I know, but unquestionably he chose to forgo any normal route to such power, and used his wealth and considerable fame/notoriety as the primary driver of any political validity. Some would argue that he had and still has no political validity whatsoever, but he himself would readily counter that by arguing back that he is currently President-elect of the United States and that makes him pretty politically valid, like it or not!
What does a Trunp government mean for our business, and in particular for the world of pharmaceuticals? Well, I think they are probably a bit more excited than they were under Obama. He actually referred to the stashing of offshore profits as "Un-American", even if he was simultaneously in bed with many of them, in particular the tech giants such as Apple, Google and Microsoft. But the Trumpster is offering big tax breaks to big business and that could make him the darling of big pharma.
If he follows through on allowing a one-time tax holiday on repatriation of offshore funds, this could have big pharma dancing in the aisles with their bottom lines overflowing in cash. And what do big pharma do when there's billions in the bank? Well they merge, of course, and so a Trump presidency could trigger some mega mergers, inside the USA, given the potential future redundancy of tax inversions under a Trump regime.
While not as vocal as either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders on pricing wars in pharma, Trump is going to exert some influence there, but it is believed that the generics marketplace is where he will be toughest. He wants Americans to pay the lowest price available, and if that means allowing a foreign competitor to do well on American soil, so be it, because he believes in that type of competition being both fair and very good for business. This parallel market is being held back under current regulations, but Trump will facilitate it.
It's most definitely a brave new world when the President of the free world is a real estate tycoon most famous for shenanigans on a reality TV show, who has never been elected to any political office and has essentially zero experience (or comprehension) of national politics never mind global politics, nor international diplomacy. It's going to be both fascinating and occasionally frightening to watch, but you know, by as early as 2018 and potentially no later than 2020, if he screws it up then the American electorate will be the people invoking his most famous line, informing him, "Donald, you're fired!"
If he follows through on allowing a one-time tax holiday on repatriation of offshore funds, this could have big pharma dancing in the aisles with their bottom lines overflowing in cash. And what do big pharma do when there's billions in the bank? Well they merge, of course, and so a Trump presidency could trigger some mega mergers, inside the USA, given the potential future redundancy of tax inversions under a Trump regime.
While not as vocal as either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders on pricing wars in pharma, Trump is going to exert some influence there, but it is believed that the generics marketplace is where he will be toughest. He wants Americans to pay the lowest price available, and if that means allowing a foreign competitor to do well on American soil, so be it, because he believes in that type of competition being both fair and very good for business. This parallel market is being held back under current regulations, but Trump will facilitate it.
It's most definitely a brave new world when the President of the free world is a real estate tycoon most famous for shenanigans on a reality TV show, who has never been elected to any political office and has essentially zero experience (or comprehension) of national politics never mind global politics, nor international diplomacy. It's going to be both fascinating and occasionally frightening to watch, but you know, by as early as 2018 and potentially no later than 2020, if he screws it up then the American electorate will be the people invoking his most famous line, informing him, "Donald, you're fired!"
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