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Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Investing in Olympic glory is riskier than venture capital!


I've been offline a little longer than usual of late, due in large part to the necessary slowing down of the pace in high summer, as well as in anticipation of the sad but inevitable slide towards September which signals that that's it for another year. Sigh. But one has to make hay while the sun shines, so that's what I've been doing - off making hay! 

On top of earlier summer distractions such as the Montreal Jazz Festival, Euro soccer, and Shark Week, many of us are now buried in the Olympics, and what a treat that has been?! Seeing legends like Michael Phelps and Usain Bolt solidifying their legacies essentially beyond compare or repetition, alongside the military precision and dominance of the USA ladies gymnastics team, has been inspirational; no doubt particularly so for superstar newcomers like Katie Ledecky or Lilly King, both of whom are destined to at least try to achieve legend status!

The most striking thing about such noble (notwithstanding doping issues) competition for me is the unseen "sacrifice" made in the four year period between Olympics. I use the inverted commas because when we do anything we love, with passion, maybe even getting paid for it (!), then it's hardly a sacrifice, even if it can occasionally feel like it. Yes, true fans of a given sport do watch the regional and national and international competitions that take place between Olympics, but for many, they only truly get into it when it's Olympics time. Ditto domestic or international soccer, and the World Cup. 

The journey that athletes travel towards the Olympics (or in many cases, a few Olympics) is truly an investment, just like a capital investment, even if the individual him/herself is the product, and one is investing purely in oneself - a person. But isn't that very often the case? As much as we investors are seen to invest in a technology that is usually housed inside a start-up or company umbrella, it is an inevitability that we are equally investing in the individual(s) whose talent and vision we admire. 

But even if we all dream of those overhyped stories of apparent overnight success, or the billion dollar exit after only a few years of investment, that old adage continues to ring true - nothing worth having comes easy - and we are compelled to take the long view, while diligently managing and nurturing and developing those investments slowly over several years, with our third eye never far off that elusive gold medal shining far off in the distance. Athletes surely have the mindset and mental endurance of good investors. 

Maintaining focus and never-ending perseverance are key, as is a regular reloading or topping up of that continuously hard-to-maintain accessory - patience! Imagine being back in 2012 after a frustrating Olympics, and then committing to a new training campaign that would ultimately only be tested or come to fruition some four years later? There just have to be days when (almost) any individual would ask: "Why the hell am I doing this? What for? Who cares?"  

Keeping the faith, keeping patience, and keeping the eye on the prize are all part and parcel of the job, and for athletes and investors alike, some are better than others at sticking the course towards their goal. For those that refuse to give up, hard work and singlemindedness are factors which ultimately should pay off. Ah, but there's the rub, because the world just isn't fair, and while one definitely increases one's chances of success with diligence and dedication, there is that other factor called lady luck that can both grant or shatter dreams! 

There are those for whom everything just seems to fall into place, repeatedly, and effortlessly, while the rest of us seemingly have to sweat blood itself in order to merit any recognition or reward, but you know, bitching about that achieves literally nothing - squared! Focus on that and you are focusing on negative emotions that rarely drive success, unless you can get over it enough to get back to focusing on the positive, at any rate. Some people just seem to be born winners, and that's life. That's it and that's all. Now what you gonna do?!

Apart from the extremely rare cases, anyway, appearances can be deceptive, and for all one knows, so-called born winners may have had a much tougher road than one realises, and/or they do make sacrifices that others (including you) do not - but they don't bitch and moan about it - and that's a characteristic of a real winner right there. Given that we are talking both sports and investing, this subject reminds me of the Peyton Manning-Tom Brady rivalry in the NFL, with Manning not being shy about hating the much more successful, much more pretty-boy handsome and media darling Brady. 

The "much more successful" tag refers not to salary at all because that's not what matters most at this level, but rather, post-season success and the coveted Superbowl ring of a champion. Peyton was behind in that category even though he was considerably older, and you could tell it got to him. Big time. I think he probably did spend some of his energy dwelling on his nemesis' success if not even his very presence in the game, and I doubt it helped much. But he seemed to accept things with time, maybe even getting over it a little, because the only way forward was to focus on himself, not another. And look what happened, Superbowl 2016 went to the Broncos and Manning got his second ring!

The nice thing for us investors is that we have it easier than Olympic athletes because while we do like and need to win occasionally, we simply don't need gold medals or Superbowl victories to be considered successful. A $1B dollar exit is something we all want, but no one is going to turn their nose up at a $100M payday either. Sport is a cruel endeavour in that when it comes to one-on-one finals in most sports, only the winner gets the glory. Who even remembers the losing team in a few years? Aren't they almost by rote referred to as "the losers"?

Olympic competition is a little more generous in that there is gold, silver and bronze, but who remembers which athlete came fourth? If we are realistic also, even among the winners triad, for superstar status and the sponsorships that come-a-calling with it - gold is the currency, and everyone wants it. So it must be tough to step forward after four years of brutal training and come away with less than you could/should have achieved, or worse, with nothing at all

That's something that's happened to many an investor and athlete alike, but as investors we tend to have more shots on goal, and rarely lose everything in one event that may have lasted for only minutes, or worse, for mere seconds! We diversify our investments (to some extent at least!) which inandof itself lowers risk, while, say,  a 100 metre sprinter invests four years for a ten second chance at glory and can come away with little more than the Olympic experience, and a broken heart. 

So, on that note, bravo to all those courageous souls out there in Rio competing for Olympic glory, you make our jobs look easy by comparison. And in the meantime, I am off out to go running on the mountain in spite of tonight's pouring rain, in search of my own little sliver of athletic glory! :)